Tourism is one of the sectors hardest hit by the new Coronavirus crisis and will take the longest to recover. The absence of State intervention and overhaul of the governance of the sector risks, despite its recognized resilience, leading to its collapse. If today, the 2020-2022 roadmap for the revival of the tourism sector is ready, the international market which represents 70% of the revenue of the Moroccan tourist economy, remains awaiting visibility to program the Morocco destination for the 2020/2021 season which starts next November.
Hit hard by the new Coronavirus, Moroccan tourism is seeking to limit the damage, by emphasizing strict hygiene measures and targeting its local market. Since the start of the health crisis, this key sector of the national economy has already suffered a shortfall of 8.3 billion DH, between March and May 2020 alone, due to the pandemic. Over the first half of 2020, the drop in activity indicators is around 60%. With 550,000 direct jobs, the sector which until then had driven the Kingdom’s economic growth with a contribution of 7% to GDP, has been virtually at a standstill since the end of March. This means that the sector, which has multiplied its good performances in recent years such as in 2019, during which travel revenues reached more than 78 billion DH compared to 73 billion DH a year earlier, is experiencing its biggest crisis since that which followed the Gulf War in 1990.
Indeed, the restrictive and containment measures put in place to counter the spread of the disease have led to a complete and complete halt to tourist activity. Bottom line: the sector experienced a double shock of supply and demand, with both the sudden and massive drop in tourist arrivals and the closure of establishments and activities associated with tourism. Despite promising signs of recovery, activity remains limited and it will take time to restore traveler confidence and return to pre-crisis levels. For this, tourism professionals who have submitted their proposals to Nadia Fettah Alaoui, Minister of Tourism, Crafts, Air Transport and Social Economy, for a little over a month, are impatiently awaiting the sectoral recovery plan promised by the government. We know a little more since its presentation to the Government Council on Thursday July 16. “It is true that a document reporting a recovery budget of 16 million DH has been circulated, but as long as the Amending Finance Bill is not adopted, we cannot say anything for the moment”, indicates a source close to the Ministry of Tourism.
Two scenarios of evolution and recovery
But, apart from the budget, the road map for the supervisory ministry has already been drawn up, according to indiscretions. The department of Nadia Fettah Alaoui has drawn up two scenarios of evolution and recovery. In terms of tourist arrivals at border posts, the most optimistic scenario expects, for this current year, a drop of -70%, which would mean that the destination Morocco would only receive 4 million tourists (31 billion DH in tourist revenue). For 2021 and 2022, this figure would respectively reach 11.8 million tourists (70 billion DH in tourism revenue) and 13.2 million tourists (79 billion DH in tourism revenue (compared to 12.9 million in 2019). As for the most pessimistic scenario, this forecasts for the Morocco destination 2.2 million foreign tourists this year, 8.8 million next year and 11.6 million in 2021. Thus, all things considered, national tourism will only return to or approach its pre-crisis level in terms of arrivals at border crossings (12.9 million in 2019) in 2021.
Today, according to a source close to the Ministry of Tourism, “tourist accommodation establishments have started to reopen, 16% are already open, a health guide, bringing together recommendations to guarantee the health and safety of people has been developed, and massive employee testing campaigns have been launched”. It must be emphasized that there are encouraging signals of a restart of supply and demand. A barometer carried out by the ONMT during confinement reveals that 70% of Moroccans intended to travel after the end of confinement, and 60% of them were going to wait 1 month to do so. Several foreign airlines have expressed interest in rescheduling flights to Morocco. Tour operators also want to restart their sales to the Kingdom as soon as the restrictions are lifted.
source; challenge.ma
