Referring to the World Bank, Morocco is one of the countries in the region which should be relatively spared from geopolitical tensions in MENA. This is explained by the fact that economic ties between Morocco and the countries in conflict are very limited. The Middle East and North Africa should return to growth in 2024. The World Bank expects growth of 2.7% in the region, marking a return to pre-pandemic levels. It also remains lower than that of the rest of the world. These forecasts established by the Breton Woods institution, however, remain surrounded by uncertainties following the increase in debt levels and the persistence of recent conflicts. “The tale of two MENA has come to an end, and countries in the region are returning to their pre-pandemic growth levels in 2024, which are expected to remain significantly lower, by more than a percentage point, than those of other PEPDs. The question arises as to whether the region’s economies will emerge stronger from the concomitant crises experienced over the past four years, but in the short term, forecasts suggest that this will not be the case. It is with this in mind that the World Bank will organize a discussion on May 15 to discuss how these challenges affect the region’s economies and how neighboring countries manage the consequences of ongoing conflicts. The opportunity is also to deepen the debate around the increase in the debt/GDP ratio at the Mena level. In this dynamic, the Moroccan economy is expected to post growth of 2.4% in 2024 to reach 3.7% in 2025. “In Morocco, we should have a rate of 2.4% in 2024, compared to 2.8% in 2023, due to the clear slowdown in agricultural activity, which is expected to decline by almost 3% in 2024 due to abnormally arid and hot climatic conditions which harm major crops,” we can read from the said publication. Referring to the World Bank, Morocco is one of the countries in the region which should be relatively spared from geopolitical tensions in MENA. This is explained by the fact that economic ties between Morocco and the countries in conflict are very limited. Regarding variations in outstanding debt in the region, the World Bank notes substantial differences between oil importing and exporting countries at the MENA level. Importing countries experienced larger increases in nominal debt on average than others, with the exception of Morocco, the West Bank and Gaza. In terms of forecasts, the World Bank anticipates growth of 2.8% in 2024 for the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council. It is also expected to rise to 4.7% in 2025. “This recovery is mainly due to the increase in oil production due to the gradual abandonment of production cuts, as well as the strong growth in the non-oil sector linked to diversification efforts and reforms. Developing oil-exporting countries will record growth of 2.8% in 2024, compared to 3.1% in 2023, while among developing oil importers, this should increase from 3.1% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024,” comments the financial institution in its publication. The World Bank notes in 2024 a difference of one percentage point in growth forecasts in the GCC countries and in the oil-importing developing countries, except Egypt. It represents a marked contrast with the difference recorded in 2022 between these two groups of countries, namely 5.6 percentage points.
