The Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts (DEPF), reporting to the Ministry of the Economy and Finance, has published its economic report n°327 for the month of May 2024. This report highlights a generally favorable trend in the national economic situation, although major risks persist at the international level. At the global level, the economic growth outlook for 2024 remains stable and resilient, according to DEPF data. The main indicators show a certain robustness of the economies. For example, the euro was trading at $1.09 on May 20, marking an increase of 2.2% since its low in April. At the same time, the price of a barrel of Brent stood at $82 on May 20, down 12% compared to its peak in April. These data, provided by the DEPF, illustrate a certain stability of the monetary and raw materials markets, despite persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainties. At the national level, the Moroccan agricultural sector is experiencing significant challenges in 2024. Cereal production is in decline, impacted by difficult climatic conditions and a drop in sown areas of 31% compared to a normal year, standing at 2.5 million hectares, according to DEPF estimates. This situation highlights the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climatic hazards and the need for reinforced resilience strategies. On the other hand, the manufacturing sector shows favorable developments. The Capacity Utilization Rate (TUC) reached a record level of 79.3% in March 2024, up 5.9 points year-on-year. This performance testifies to the renewed vitality of the industrial sector, supported by vigorous domestic and external demand. The extractive, construction and public works (BTP) and energy sectors also show a positive trend. Rock phosphate production jumped 32.1% at the end of March 2024, compared to a drop of 26.4% a year earlier, according to the DEPF. Cement sales increased by 3.5% at the end of April 2024, compared to a decline of 8.5% in the same period in 2023. In addition, electrical energy production increased by 5.7% in the first quarter of 2024, after a contraction of 2.6% the previous year. These developments, highlighted by the DEPF, indicate a strengthening of activities in these key sectors of the national economy. The month of April was marked by remarkable performances in the tourism and air transport sector. The number of tourist arrivals reached 1.3 million in April, bringing the cumulative figure to 4.6 million for the first four months of the year, with more than 5.5 million overnight stays recorded at the end of March 2024. Air transport also experienced strong momentum, with more than 2.6 million passengers in April, reaching a record level of 9.5 million at the end of April. These figures, provided by the DEPF, illustrate the vigorous recovery of the tourism sector, supported by increased international demand. The telecommunications sector is performing well in the first quarter of 2024, with growth in mobile (+4.4%) and internet (+7.5%) fleets, according to the DEPF. This progression reflects the growing digitalization of the economy and the sustained demand for communication services. Household consumption should recover in 2024, benefiting from a clear slowdown in inflation, with an increase of only 0.2% in April 2024 after a rate of 7.8% a year earlier, according to the DEPF. This improvement is also supported by the positive evolution of certain income indicators, linked to social transfers from the State and the latest general increases in income following social dialogue. Investment continues to consolidate, supported by major projects undertaken in different sectors. Revenue from foreign direct investment ers (FDI) increased by 23.9% at the end of March, equipment loans by 10.8% and imports of capital goods by 2.2%, according to the DEPF. The dynamic of investment spending in the General State Budget, reaching 30 billion dirhams at the end of April, also reinforces this trend. The trade deficit fell by 14.6%, and the coverage rate improved by 4.4 points to reach 64.7% at the end of March, according to the DEPF. The budget deficit fell to 6.1 billion dirhams at the end of April, compared to 13.4 billion dirhams recorded a year earlier. In addition, the growth of bank loans accelerated, reaching 6.7% at the end of March 2024 after an increase of 5.1% the previous year, according to DEPF data.
