This month remains the final period to save the agricultural campaign. In the case of the disaster scenario, many economic and social indicators will be disrupted.
Only a few days separate us from 2024. The indicators that are emerging at the moment concerning the prospects for next year are mixed. Certain elements suggest a favorable development. Others, on the contrary, are rather pessimistic and see the situation more complicated than expected. International institutions, including the World Bank, believe that despite several constraints, the national economy has strengthened its resilience. The recovery should intensify in the medium term, allowing growth to reach 3.1% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, before increasing to 3.5% in 2026. As for the 2024 Finance Law, we are instead counting on a rate of 3.7%. This hypothesis is based on a cereal harvest of 75 million quintals. But this forecast did not take into account recent developments in the agricultural season. Nizar Baraka, Minister of Equipment and Water, recently sounded the alarm on the worsening water deficit. During a press conference organized on the sidelines of a Government Council meeting, he announced gloomy prospects. “For five consecutive years, Morocco has suffered a severe drought, which has reduced water reserves to alarming levels. The water situation in Morocco is critical,” he said. He continued that “water reserves in dams amounted to only 519 million cubic meters during the first three months of this year, a decrease of two thirds compared to last year and more than 50% compared to the average of the last five years. The filling rate of dams has currently fallen to 23.5%. Which is equivalent to 3.7 billion cubic meters. Under these conditions, the 2023/2024 campaign does not look good. The last three months have been 67% drier than a normal year. The water shortage was accentuated by a rise in temperature 1.30 degrees higher than the annual average. “Under current conditions, the hypothesis of the 2024 LF concerning wheat harvests for the agricultural campaign, estimated at 75 million quintals, is not tenable. The start of the season was severely disrupted by the lack of rain. The next two months will be crucial to the outcome of the season. The absence of bad weather during next January will be synonymous with a compromised year. If the drought persists during the spring, we must expect one of the worst agricultural seasons and harvests will not be able to exceed 20 million quintals,” explains Mohamed Amrani, economist. “Such a scenario will have a direct impact on growth, which should be drastically revised downwards. Despite the diversification of the national economy, agriculture has knock-on effects on many activities. Its share in GDP varies between 12 and 14% depending on the year,” he added. In addition to economic growth, other indicators will be disrupted. The unemployment rate is expected to increase, accentuated by job losses in rural areas. To meet the country’s food needs, imports should be on an upward trend, impacting foreign currency assets. Such a scenario should occur as public finances are put to the test with new budgetary commitments. “2024 is the year of the implementation of the unified social register and the generalization of compulsory health insurance. Likewise, the government is called upon to continue the reconstruction program following the El Haouz earthquake. It must also begin work on the 2030 World Cup. On a social level, the state budget must support the costs of social dialogue, particularly for the teaching staff,” concludes Amrani.
source: fnh.ma
