National economic growth should record a slight acceleration to 3.2% in 2024, forecasts CFG Bank. “In 2024, we anticipate a slight acceleration in economic growth compared to 2023e (+3.2% vs. 2.7%). A performance which would, however, remain below the pre-crisis trend average and dependent on the smooth running of the rainy season”, indicates CFG in a document on “the macroeconomic & market outlook 2024”. Inflation should continue its downward trend and settle at 2.4% in 2024, according to Bank Al-Maghrib projections, the same source said. “The continuation of the downward movement in inflation would argue in favor of a status quo in terms of monetary policy in the short term. In the medium term, we do not rule out a return to a more accommodating policy,” believes CFG Bank. Concerning the budgetary balance, it should continue its trend improvement to settle at -4% of GDP in 2024, against -4.5% in 2023, moving closer to its target level of -3.5% of GDP, forecasts the bank. And to support: “In 2024, we should witness a consolidation of foreign exchange reserves thanks to a quasi-stability of the balance of goods and services and the maintenance of transfers from MRE (Moroccans residing abroad) at very high levels”. 16 days in 2023, according to the expectations of CFG Bank which will not envisage pressure on the value of the dirham. As for the Casablanca Stock Exchange, CFG Bank’s central scenario predicts that the profit mass of all listed companies should increase by 21.3% in 2023. Restated for exceptional items recorded in 2022 and 2023, the adjusted profit mass should increase by 11.6% in 2023. In 2024, the profit mass should increase by 10.6%. Restated for exceptional items, the adjusted profit mass should increase by 8.1%. Taking into account the clear reduction in inflation since the peak recorded in February 2023, the good concordance between market expectations and Treasury issue rates on long-term maturities and the virtual stabilization of the Treasury’s net needs in 2024 compared to 2023 and subject to maintaining the same proportion of internal and external financing, sovereign rates should remain stable in 2024.
source: industries.ma
