Decline in the value of the euro, new customers who are more careful about their spending, Aid Al Adha which does not encourage nationals to travel, disaffection among MREs for their country of origin, everyone is trying to explain the drop in revenue which characterized the month of August, which usually sees strong growth.
Two months before the end of the tourist year, which promised to be exceptional in terms of revenue, various sources report a summer season which did not live up to the expectations of the profession, accustomed since January to double-digit growth in arrivals and revenue.
August and September see falling revenues
By consulting the foreign trade bulletin published each month by the foreign exchange office, we realize that foreign currency receipts for August and September did not take off and even fell compared to those of the same months of 2017.
The month of August brought in 10.4785 billion dirhams in revenue but the January-August 2018 cumulative total is practically identical to that of 2017 (48.8225 compared to 48.214, a small increase of 615 million dirhams).
This corresponds to a meager growth of 1.3% while the previous January-July cumulative total (38.344 billion dirhams) had achieved a remarkable increase of 9.4% compared to the first 7 months of the previous year (35.05 billion dirhams).
Remember that the summer season started very well considering the exceptional figures for June.
Despite 13 days of Ramadan and 17 days of the World Cup, this month recorded an 18% growth in arrivals (compared to June 2017) and above all an exceptional increase of 15.2% in foreign exchange earnings which stood at MAD 31.209 billion compared to MAD 27.093 billion in 2017, i.e. 4.116 billion more than the first 6 months of 2017.
According to a ministerial source who requested anonymity, “the month of August was not great with national arrivals experiencing a small increase of between 1 and 2%”.
We are therefore far from the 7% increase in national arrivals announced by the president of the CNT who was betting on growth of more than 10% for locomotives like Marrakech or Agadir.
To explain the slowdown in growth which has not declined since January, we will have to wait for the publication of the official figures for August which have still not been revealed. They will make it possible to know the cities which have achieved the worst performances and the source markets in decline: national, MRE or TES (foreign stay tourism).
Arrivals accountants no longer know which way to turn
In the end, what is most striking is the lack of arithmetic logic in the evolution of recipes.
Thus, the month of July saw a 2% drop in arrivals, accompanied by a significant increase in receipts (9%). Conversely, August saw a slight increase in arrivals and an equally minimal increase in receipts (+1.3%).
Such a phase shift undermines forecasts for 2018 which were forecasting a total revenue of 76 to 80 billion dirhams compared to 69.6 billion dirhams in 2017.
Recall that the previous year had recorded a historic record with growth of 8.4%, a rate never reached since 2008, the date of the start of the global tourism crisis…
This dynamic of near stagnation in revenues which began in August and continued in September shows that the rebound promised by several interlocutors ultimately did not take place.
The disaffection of MREs behind the drop in revenue?
According to an interlocutor from Marrakech, the drop in revenue is mainly explained by the disaffection of MREs who literally deserted the ocher city in August.
“This summer, the convertible festival did not take place. The young MREs who are used to coming to party with us have either spent most of their vacation budget in Russia for the World Cup or preferred to go to Spain where they enjoy more freedom. There were not many nationals because of Eid which they spent with family in their city of residence.
“There was still a recovery in September which is the congress period until the beginning of November. The end-of-year holidays will be decisive in restoring some semblance of growth in total revenues for 2018, but what is certain is that we are heading towards virtual stagnation compared to 2017,” concludes our interlocutor, who hopes for growth of 2 to 3%.
Source: medias24.com
