Faced with the current context, the HCP calls for additional budgetary space to be released to further contribute to the process of stimulating economic activity. The Moroccan economy should continue the recovery observed a year earlier in 2024. In this regard, the High Commission for Planning anticipates a strengthening of economic growth for the current financial year. A dynamic which should be supported by the investment effort and the expected increase in demand addressed to Morocco. In 2024, the Gross Domestic Product is expected to increase by 3.2% compared to 2.9% estimated for 2023. Nominal GDP is expected, for its part, to increase by 6% in 2024 bringing inflation, measured by the implicit GDP index, to 2.8% in 2024 after having recorded 4.5% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2022. “The economic forecasts of the year 2024 are established taking into consideration the provisions announced in the 2024 Finance Law. This year should be characterized by the implementation of a range of measures to mitigate the effects linked to the socio-economic consequences of inflation, drought and the Al Haouz earthquake. In this context, several major projects would be deployed, in particular through the implementation of programs for the reconstruction and upgrading of disaster areas, direct social assistance and housing assistance,” explains the HCP in its publication on the forecast economic budget for 2024. And to specify that “these forecasts are also based on the hypothesis of a recovery in foreign demand in a context of gradual attenuation of inflationary tensions at the international level.” Referring to the HCP, the moderate outlook for economic growth raises the crucial importance of achieving more job-creating economic growth. “This need is all the more pressing as the employment content of economic growth tends to weaken and the potential growth of the national economy shows a downward trend,” we note. And to suggest: “In this context subject to both external and internal constraints of the national economy, in particular those linked to the extent of the intervention of budgetary policy, it is inevitable to free up additional budgetary space to contribute further to the process of stimulating economic activity”. 2.5% increase in agricultural activities The forecasts revealed by the HCP assume the achievement of below-average cereal production during the 2023/2024 campaign taking into account the level of precipitation and their spatio-temporal distribution at the end of December 2023. In detail, agricultural activities should record an increase of 2.5% in 2024 contributing to GDP growth of 0.3 points. “Taking into account an improvement in maritime fishing activities, the primary sector should generate added value improving by 2.7% instead of an increase of 6.7% estimated for 2023,” estimates the HCP. As for non-agricultural activities, the HCP expects a growth rate of nearly 3.2% in 2024 after 2.7% in 2023. This development should be driven by the continued good performance of the tertiary sector and the recovery of the secondary sector. “Supported by the consolidation of external and internal demands, secondary value added should improve by 2.8% in 2024 after a decline of 0.4% in 2023, benefiting from the positive impact of the expected recovery of the construction sector, mining activities and processing industries”, can we remember from the HCP. Furthermore, industrial activities should show an increase of 2.7% in 2024 instead of 0.6% in 2023, driven mainly by the planned recovery of the chemical industries and the continued performance of the automobile industry. The mining sector should experience an increase of 3.9% in 2024 instead of a decrease of 4.2% in 2023 and 9.4% in 2022. Likewise, the construction sector should experience a resumption of its activity in 2024, benefiting both from the increase in public investments in infrastructure and the launch of the housing assistance program. Its added value should increase by 2.8%, instead of two declines of 1.3% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2022. As for tertiary activities, they should maintain their support for overall economic growth, showing an increase of 3.4% in 2024 after 4% a year earlier. The public investment effort supports domestic demand As for domestic demand, it should be supported by the public investment effort. It would also benefit from the launch of the direct social assistance program for precarious households as part of the operationalization of social programs defined by the Kingdom’s strategy. Referring to HCP projections, household consumption should experience a slight increase of 1.1% against a backdrop of improving perceived income and still rigid downward inflation. “Household disposable income, which should record growth of 3.8%, would face inflation at the same level. Thus, the purchasing power of households would continue to suffer the negative effects of inflation and should record a regression for the third consecutive year of 0.01% after that of 0.5% in 2023 and 4% in 2022,” we can read from the HCP. Public administration consumption should, for its part, show a consolidated growth rate of around 5.1%, contributing 1 point to GDP growth. Taking into account these developments, national final consumption should show a growth rate of 2.1%, giving rise to a contribution of 1.7 points to GDP. At the same time, the volume of gross investment should increase by 7.8%, generating a positive contribution of 2.1 points to GDP growth in 2024 instead of a contribution of only 0.7 points planned for 2023. To this end, domestic demand should show more sustained growth of around 3.5%, contributing 3.8 points to economic growth instead of 1.8 points in 2023.
source: dhui.ma
